SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 71.95%. A draw had a probability of 16.3% and a win for Fulham had a probability of 11.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 3-0 (8.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.47%), while for a Fulham win it was 1-2 (3.45%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Fulham |
71.95% ( -0.44) | 16.31% ( 0.22) | 11.74% ( 0.23) |
| Both teams to score 55.38% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.72% ( -0.46) | 33.28% ( 0.46) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.96% ( -0.53) | 55.05% ( 0.54) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.9% ( -0.2) | 8.1% ( 0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 71.54% ( -0.52) | 28.46% ( 0.52) |
| Fulham Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.26% ( 0.05) | 39.74% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.59% ( 0.04) | 76.41% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Fulham |
| 2-0 @ 10.16% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 9.38% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 8.52% ( -0.05)1-0 @ 8.09% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 7.86% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 5.35% ( -0.09)4-1 @ 4.94% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 3.63% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 2.69% ( -0.07)5-1 @ 2.48% ( -0.06)4-2 @ 2.28% ( -0.03)5-2 @ 1.15% ( -0.03)6-0 @ 1.13% ( -0.04)6-1 @ 1.04% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.26% Total : 71.95% | 1-1 @ 7.47% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 4.33% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 3.22% ( 0.08)3-3 @ 1.12% ( -0)Other @ 0.18% Total : 16.31% | 1-2 @ 3.45% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 2.97% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 1.37% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.33% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.06% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.56% Total : 11.74% |
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