SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough Under-21s win with a probability of 54.49%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 25.27% and a draw had a probability of 20.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.68%) and 0-2 (6.08%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 2-1 (5.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Middlesbrough Under-21s would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County Under-21s | Draw | Middlesbrough Under-21s |
25.27% ( -10.47) | 20.24% ( -1.41) | 54.49% ( 11.89) |
| Both teams to score 68.93% ( -1.51) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 71.59% ( 0.74) | 28.4% ( -0.73) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 50.75% ( 0.9) | 49.24% ( -0.89) |
| Derby County Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.27% ( -5.3) | 22.73% ( 5.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.6% ( -8.53) | 56.4% ( 8.54) |
| Middlesbrough Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.21% ( 3.91) | 10.79% ( -3.9) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 65.18% ( 8.06) | 34.81% ( -8.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County Under-21s | Draw | Middlesbrough Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 5.99% ( -1.5) 1-0 @ 3.63% ( -0.84)3-2 @ 3.3% ( -0.89)3-1 @ 2.96% ( -1.41)2-0 @ 2.69% ( -1.22)3-0 @ 1.33% ( -0.95)4-2 @ 1.22% ( -0.61)4-1 @ 1.1% ( -0.81)4-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.26)Other @ 2.15% Total : 25.27% | 1-1 @ 8.09% ( -0.49) 2-2 @ 6.67% ( -0.52)0-0 @ 2.45% ( -0.11)3-3 @ 2.45% ( -0.23)Other @ 0.58% Total : 20.24% | 1-2 @ 9.01% ( 0.78) 1-3 @ 6.68% ( 1.43)0-2 @ 6.08% ( 1.37)0-1 @ 5.46% ( 0.55)2-3 @ 4.95% ( 0.36)0-3 @ 4.51% ( 1.5)1-4 @ 3.72% ( 1.2)2-4 @ 2.76% ( 0.55)0-4 @ 2.51% ( 1.07)1-5 @ 1.66% ( 0.69)3-4 @ 1.36% ( 0.08)2-5 @ 1.23% ( 0.38)0-5 @ 1.12% ( 0.56)Other @ 3.44% Total : 54.49% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Southampton Under-21sSaints U21s | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 54 | 28 | 26 | 42 |
| P | Leeds United Under-21sLeeds U21s | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 53 | 29 | 24 | 42 |
| 3 | Nottingham Forest Under-21sForest U21s | 20 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 44 | 28 | 16 | 41 |
| 4 | West Bromwich Albion Under-21sWBA U21s | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 47 | 35 | 12 | 37 |
| 5 | Aston Villa Under-21sAston Villa U21s | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 46 | 35 | 11 | 33 |
| 6 | Norwich City Under-21sNorwich U21s | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 41 | 38 | 3 | 30 |
| 7 | Middlesbrough Under-21sBoro U21s | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 26 |
| 8 | Newcastle United Under-21sNewcastle U21s | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 23 |
| 9 | Sunderland Under-21sSunderland U21s | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 20 |
| 10 | Stoke City Under-21sStoke U21s | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 26 | 45 | -19 | 14 |
| 11 | Derby County Under-21sDerby U21s | 20 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 13 | 70 | -57 | 1 |
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