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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United Under-21s win with a probability of 82.84%. A draw had a probability of 10.3% and a win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 6.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United Under-21s win was 3-0 with a probability of 8.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.99%) and 2-0 (6.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.03%), while for a Derby County Under-21s win it was 1-2 (2%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 3-0 win for Leeds United Under-21s in this match.
| Result | ||
| Leeds United Under-21s | Draw | Derby County Under-21s |
82.84% ( 0.59) | 10.31% ( -0.32) | 6.85% ( -0.27) |
| Both teams to score 60.99% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 81.99% ( 0.65) | 18.01% ( -0.65) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 64.8% ( 0.95) | 35.2% ( -0.96) |
| Leeds United Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 96.82% ( 0.18) | 3.18% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 85.86% ( 0.62) | 14.14% ( -0.62) |
| Derby County Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63% ( -0.02) | 37% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.21% ( -0.02) | 73.79% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Leeds United Under-21s | Draw | Derby County Under-21s |
| 3-0 @ 8.04% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 7.99% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 6.99% ( -0.16)2-1 @ 6.95% ( -0.16)4-0 @ 6.93% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 6.89% ( 0.06)5-0 @ 4.78% ( 0.12)5-1 @ 4.75% ( 0.12)1-0 @ 4.06% ( -0.16)3-2 @ 3.97% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 3.43% ( 0.03)6-0 @ 2.75% ( 0.12)6-1 @ 2.73% ( 0.11)5-2 @ 2.36% ( 0.06)6-2 @ 1.36% ( 0.06)7-0 @ 1.35% ( 0.08)7-1 @ 1.35% ( 0.08)4-3 @ 1.14% ( 0.01)Other @ 5% Total : 82.84% | 1-1 @ 4.03% ( -0.16) 2-2 @ 3.46% ( -0.08)3-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 1.18% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.33% Total : 10.31% | 1-2 @ 2% ( -0.08) 0-1 @ 1.17% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.53% Total : 6.85% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Southampton Under-21sSaints U21s | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 54 | 28 | 26 | 42 |
| 2 | Leeds United Under-21sLeeds U21s | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 53 | 29 | 24 | 42 |
| 3 | Nottingham Forest Under-21sForest U21s | 20 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 44 | 28 | 16 | 41 |
| 4 | West Bromwich Albion Under-21sWBA U21s | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 47 | 35 | 12 | 37 |
| 5 | Aston Villa Under-21sAston Villa U21s | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 46 | 35 | 11 | 33 |
| 6 | Norwich City Under-21sNorwich U21s | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 41 | 38 | 3 | 30 |
| 7 | Middlesbrough Under-21sBoro U21s | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 26 |
| 8 | Newcastle United Under-21sNewcastle U21s | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 23 |
| 9 | Sunderland Under-21sSunderland U21s | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 20 |
| 10 | Stoke City Under-21sStoke U21s | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 26 | 45 | -19 | 14 |
| 11 | Derby County Under-21sDerby U21s | 20 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 13 | 70 | -57 | 1 |
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