SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crusaders win with a probability of 85.93%. A draw had a probability of 9.7% and a win for Newry City AFC had a probability of 4.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crusaders win was 3-0 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.85%) and 4-0 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.61%), while for a Newry City AFC win it was 0-1 (1.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Crusaders would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Crusaders | Draw | Newry City AFC |
85.93% ( -0.24) | 9.73% ( 0.14) | 4.34% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 43.19% ( 0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 71.48% ( -0.14) | 28.53% ( 0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 50.61% ( -0.17) | 49.39% ( 0.18) |
| Crusaders Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 95.49% ( -0.06) | 4.51% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 81.52% ( -0.2) | 18.49% ( 0.2) |
| Newry City AFC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 45.23% ( 0.33) | 54.77% ( -0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 12.26% ( 0.2) | 87.74% ( -0.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Crusaders | Draw | Newry City AFC |
| 3-0 @ 12.25% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 11.85% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 9.49% ( -0.1)1-0 @ 7.65% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 7.38% ( 0.03)2-1 @ 7.14% ( 0.06)5-0 @ 5.88% ( -0.09)4-1 @ 5.71% ( -0)5-1 @ 3.54% ( -0.02)6-0 @ 3.04% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 2.22% ( 0.03)6-1 @ 1.83% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.72% ( 0.02)7-0 @ 1.35% ( -0.03)5-2 @ 1.07% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.8% Total : 85.92% | 1-1 @ 4.61% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 2.47% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 2.15% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.5% Total : 9.73% | 0-1 @ 1.49% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 1.39% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.47% Total : 4.34% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | LinfieldLinfield | 18 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 44 | 20 | 24 | 43 |
| 2 | LarneLarne | 19 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 37 | 13 | 24 | 42 |
| 3 | CliftonvilleCliftonville | 19 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 41 |
| 4 | CrusadersCrusaders | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 36 | 19 | 17 | 32 |
| 5 | GlentoranGlentoran | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 36 | 19 | 17 | 31 |
| 6 | ColeraineColeraine | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 30 | -6 | 26 |
| 7 | GlenavonGlenavon | 19 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 33 | -11 | 23 |
| 8 | Loughgall | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 30 | 37 | -7 | 22 |
| 9 | Carrick RangersCarrick | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 26 | 47 | -21 | 21 |
| 10 | Dungannon SwiftsDungannon | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 26 | 39 | -13 | 15 |
| 11 | Ballymena UnitedBallymena | 19 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 36 | -25 | 11 |
| 12 | Newry City AFC | 19 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 17 | 49 | -32 | 11 |
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