Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 58.45%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Serbia had a probability of 18.07%.

The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.37%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.1%), while for a Serbia win it was 0-1 (6.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Spain would win this match.

Result
Spain	Draw	Serbia
58.45% ( 0.16)	23.48% ( -0.01)	18.07% ( -0.15)

Both teams to score 47.08% (

-0.24)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.75% (

-0.18)

52.25% (

0.18)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.05% (

-0.16)

73.95% (

0.15)

Spain Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.38% (

-0.01)

17.62% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.79% (

-0.02)

48.21% (

0.01)

Serbia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57.15% (

-0.29)

42.84% (

0.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.84% (

-0.24)

79.16% (

0.24)

Score Analysis

Spain 58.44%

Serbia 18.07%

Draw 23.47%

Spain	Draw	Serbia
1-0 @ 13.1% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 11.37% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 9.64% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 6.59% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 5.58% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 2.86% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.42% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.37% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.03% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 0.99% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.49% Total : 58.44%	1-1 @ 11.1% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.55% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 4.09% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.73% Total : 23.47%	0-1 @ 6.4% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 4.71% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 2.71% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.77% Total : 18.07%