It would be fair to expect another tight contest in Germany, as Italy will go all-out to overturn their first-leg loss - but they are set to come up just short. The Azzurri have scored in all but one of their last 20 Nations League matches, finding the net before half time in the last 10, so another first-half strike could set up a frantic finale. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Germany win with a probability of 60.61%. A draw has a probability of 21.8% and a win for Italy has a probability of 17.57%.

The most likely scoreline for a Germany win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (10.78%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (10.36%), while for a Italy win it is 0-1 (5.43%).

Result
Germany	Draw	Italy
60.61% ( 0.23)	21.81% ( -0.07)	17.57% ( -0.15)

Both teams to score 51.19% (

-0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.74% (

0.07)

46.26% (

-0.07)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.45% (

0.07)

68.55% (

-0.06)

Germany Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.2% (

0.1)

14.8% (

-0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.92% (

0.19)

43.08% (

-0.18)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.09% (

-0.14)

39.91% (

0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.43% (

-0.13)

76.57% (

0.13)

Score Analysis

Germany 60.61%

Italy 17.57%

Draw 21.81%

Germany	Draw	Italy
1-0 @ 11.28% 2-0 @ 10.78% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.9% 3-0 @ 6.87% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 6.31% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 3.28% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 3.01% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.9% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.38% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.25% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.15% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.5% Total : 60.61%	1-1 @ 10.36% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 5.91% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.55% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.99% Total : 21.81%	0-1 @ 5.43% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 4.76% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 2.49% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.39% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.04% Total : 17.57%