SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fylde win with a probability of 41.7%. A win for Oxford City had a probability of 34.88% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fylde win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.92%) and 0-2 (5.79%). The likeliest Oxford City win was 2-1 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Oxford City | Draw | Fylde |
34.88% ( -0.21) | 23.41% ( 0.04) | 41.7% ( 0.17) |
| Both teams to score 63.32% ( -0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.68% ( -0.23) | 38.31% ( 0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.4% ( -0.24) | 60.59% ( 0.24) |
| Oxford City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.96% ( -0.22) | 22.03% ( 0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.63% ( -0.33) | 55.36% ( 0.33) |
| Fylde Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.21% ( -0.02) | 18.79% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 49.8% ( -0.03) | 50.2% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Oxford City | Draw | Fylde |
| 2-1 @ 7.92% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 6.26% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 4.74% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.99% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 3.34% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 2.39% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.51% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.26% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 0.9% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.58% Total : 34.88% | 1-1 @ 10.46% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 6.62% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 4.14% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 1.86% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.33% Total : 23.4% | 1-2 @ 8.75% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 6.92% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 5.79% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 4.88% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 3.69% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 3.23% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 2.04% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.54% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.35% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.52% Total : 41.7% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Chesterfield | 17 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 43 | 22 | 21 | 44 |
| 2 | Barnet | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 38 | 22 | 16 | 42 |
| 3 | Bromley | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 28 | 18 | 10 | 35 |
| 4 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 34 |
| 5 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 17 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 29 |
| 6 | Halifax TownHalifax | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 28 |
| 7 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 27 |
| 8 | Gateshead | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 25 | 11 | 26 |
| 9 | Rochdale | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 31 | 29 | 2 | 24 |
| 10 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 26 | 27 | -1 | 23 |
| 11 | Eastleigh | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 23 |
| 12 | Woking | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 22 |
| 13 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 22 |
| 14 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 22 |
| 15 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 34 | 18 | 16 | 21 |
| 16 | Dorking WanderersDorking | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 21 |
| 17 | Boreham WoodBoreham Wood | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 20 |
| 18 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 20 |
| 19 | Ebbsfleet | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 17 |
| 20 | Fylde | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 16 |
| 21 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 16 |
| 22 | York City | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 16 |
| 23 | Oxford CityOxford City | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 24 | 36 | -12 | 14 |
| 24 | Kidderminster HarriersKidderminster | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 14 |
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