SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ebbsfleet win with a probability of 42.39%. A win for Altrincham had a probability of 32.82% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ebbsfleet win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.77%) and 0-2 (6.75%). The likeliest Altrincham win was 2-1 (7.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.62%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Altrincham | Draw | Ebbsfleet |
32.82% ( 1.12) | 24.79% ( 0.07) | 42.39% ( -1.19) |
| Both teams to score 57.7% ( 0.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.61% ( 0.08) | 45.4% ( -0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.27% ( 0.08) | 67.73% ( -0.08) |
| Altrincham Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.45% ( 0.75) | 26.55% ( -0.75) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.24% ( 0.98) | 61.76% ( -0.98) |
| Ebbsfleet Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.55% ( -0.51) | 21.45% ( 0.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.54% ( -0.79) | 54.47% ( 0.79) |
| Score Analysis |
| Altrincham | Draw | Ebbsfleet |
| 2-1 @ 7.71% ( 0.18) 1-0 @ 7.55% ( 0.13)2-0 @ 5.01% ( 0.19)3-1 @ 3.41% ( 0.15)3-2 @ 2.62% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 2.21% ( 0.13)4-1 @ 1.13% ( 0.07)Other @ 3.18% Total : 32.82% | 1-1 @ 11.62% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.93% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 5.7% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.35% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.78% | 1-2 @ 8.95% ( -0.12) 0-1 @ 8.77% ( -0.17)0-2 @ 6.75% ( -0.24)1-3 @ 4.59% ( -0.14)0-3 @ 3.46% ( -0.18)2-3 @ 3.05% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.77% ( -0.08)0-4 @ 1.33% ( -0.09)2-4 @ 1.17% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.55% Total : 42.39% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Chesterfield | 17 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 43 | 22 | 21 | 44 |
| 2 | Barnet | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 38 | 22 | 16 | 42 |
| 3 | Bromley | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 28 | 18 | 10 | 35 |
| 4 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 34 |
| 5 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 17 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 29 |
| 6 | Halifax TownHalifax | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 28 |
| 7 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 27 |
| 8 | Gateshead | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 25 | 11 | 26 |
| 9 | Rochdale | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 31 | 29 | 2 | 24 |
| 10 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 26 | 27 | -1 | 23 |
| 11 | Eastleigh | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 23 |
| 12 | Woking | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 22 |
| 13 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 22 |
| 14 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 34 | 18 | 16 | 21 |
| 15 | Dorking WanderersDorking | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 21 |
| 16 | Boreham WoodBoreham Wood | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 20 |
| 17 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 20 |
| 18 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 19 |
| 19 | Ebbsfleet | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 17 |
| 20 | Fylde | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 16 |
| 21 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 16 |
| 22 | York City | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 16 |
| 23 | Oxford CityOxford City | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 24 | 36 | -12 | 14 |
| 24 | Kidderminster HarriersKidderminster | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 14 |
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