SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Darlington win with a probability of 41.5%. A win for Chorley had a probability of 30.97% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Darlington win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.46%) and 2-0 (7.79%). The likeliest Chorley win was 0-1 (9.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Darlington | Draw | Chorley |
41.5% ( 2.59) | 27.53% ( -0.29) | 30.97% ( -2.3) |
| Both teams to score 48.25% ( 0.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.75% ( 0.56) | 57.25% ( -0.56) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.91% ( 0.45) | 78.09% ( -0.45) |
| Darlington Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.83% ( 1.72) | 27.16% ( -1.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 37.43% ( 2.19) | 62.57% ( -2.19) |
| Chorley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.25% ( -1.32) | 33.75% ( 1.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 29.59% ( -1.46) | 70.41% ( 1.46) |
| Score Analysis |
| Darlington | Draw | Chorley |
| 1-0 @ 11.94% ( 0.31) 2-1 @ 8.46% ( 0.32)2-0 @ 7.79% ( 0.56)3-1 @ 3.67% ( 0.31)3-0 @ 3.38% ( 0.39)3-2 @ 2% ( 0.1)4-1 @ 1.2% ( 0.15)4-0 @ 1.1% ( 0.17)Other @ 1.96% Total : 41.49% | 1-1 @ 12.97% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 9.17% ( -0.2)2-2 @ 4.59% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.79% Total : 27.52% | 0-1 @ 9.96% ( -0.58) 1-2 @ 7.05% ( -0.33)0-2 @ 5.41% ( -0.53)1-3 @ 2.55% ( -0.22)0-3 @ 1.96% ( -0.27)2-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.39% Total : 30.97% |
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