SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chester FC win with a probability of 51.8%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Kettering Town had a probability of 23.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chester FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 2-0 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.76%), while for a Kettering Town win it was 0-1 (7.24%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chester FC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chester FC | Draw | Kettering Town |
51.8% ( 0.12) | 24.75% ( -0.17) | 23.45% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 50.99% ( 0.57) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.98% ( 0.72) | 51.02% ( -0.72) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.11% ( 0.63) | 72.88% ( -0.63) |
| Chester FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.32% ( 0.33) | 19.68% ( -0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.33% ( 0.54) | 51.67% ( -0.53) |
| Kettering Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.48% ( 0.45) | 36.52% ( -0.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.69% ( 0.45) | 73.31% ( -0.44) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chester FC | Draw | Kettering Town |
| 1-0 @ 11.68% ( -0.22) 2-1 @ 9.57% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 9.5% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 5.18% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 5.15% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.61% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 2.11% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 2.09% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.06% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.86% Total : 51.8% | 1-1 @ 11.76% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 7.19% ( -0.21)2-2 @ 4.82% ( 0.08)Other @ 0.97% Total : 24.74% | 0-1 @ 7.24% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 5.93% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 3.65% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.99% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.62% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 1.22% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.8% Total : 23.45% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | King's Lynn TownKing's Lynn | 45 | 26 | 12 | 7 | 82 | 43 | 39 | 90 |
| 2 | Fylde | 44 | 27 | 8 | 9 | 76 | 44 | 32 | 89 |
| 3 | Chester FCChester | 45 | 21 | 18 | 6 | 68 | 41 | 27 | 81 |
| 4 | Alfreton TownAlfreton | 44 | 17 | 17 | 10 | 53 | 40 | 13 | 68 |
| 5 | Brackley Town | 45 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 56 | 46 | 10 | 68 |
| 6 | Scarborough AthleticScarborough Ath | 45 | 18 | 13 | 14 | 71 | 66 | 5 | 67 |
| 7 | Buxton | 45 | 18 | 13 | 14 | 55 | 50 | 5 | 67 |
| 8 | Chorley | 45 | 17 | 15 | 13 | 59 | 46 | 13 | 66 |
| 9 | Kidderminster HarriersKidderminster | 45 | 18 | 12 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 66 |
| 10 | Curzon AshtonCurzon Ashton | 44 | 18 | 11 | 15 | 58 | 51 | 7 | 65 |
| 11 | Gloucester CityGloucester City | 45 | 18 | 11 | 16 | 71 | 65 | 6 | 65 |
| 12 | Spennymoor TownSpennymoor | 45 | 17 | 14 | 14 | 66 | 66 | 0 | 65 |
| 13 | Darlington | 45 | 17 | 13 | 15 | 71 | 64 | 7 | 64 |
| 14 | Peterborough SportsP'boro Sports | 45 | 15 | 12 | 18 | 50 | 54 | -4 | 57 |
| 15 | Hereford UnitedHereford | 45 | 15 | 10 | 20 | 47 | 51 | -4 | 55 |
| 16 | Boston UnitedBoston | 45 | 14 | 11 | 20 | 64 | 65 | -1 | 53 |
| 17 | Banbury UnitedBanbury | 45 | 13 | 14 | 18 | 52 | 59 | -7 | 53 |
| 18 | Farsley CelticFarsley Celtic | 45 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 50 | 71 | -21 | 51 |
| 19 | SouthportSouthport | 45 | 13 | 11 | 21 | 49 | 60 | -11 | 50 |
| 20 | Kettering TownKettering | 45 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 41 | 60 | -19 | 49 |
| 21 | Blyth Spartans | 45 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 42 | 62 | -20 | 45 |
| R | Leamington FCLeamington | 45 | 9 | 18 | 18 | 39 | 59 | -20 | 45 |
| 23 | Bradford Park AvenueBradford Park Av | 44 | 10 | 13 | 21 | 40 | 63 | -23 | 43 |
| R | AFC Telford UnitedTelford | 45 | 6 | 14 | 25 | 34 | 72 | -38 | 32 |
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