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| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | CF Montreal | 17 | 4 | 27 |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls | 17 | 5 | 26 |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 17 | 1 | 24 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Columbus Crew | 16 | 2 | 21 |
| 8 | Atlanta United | 15 | 4 | 19 |
| 9 | Toronto | 17 | -8 | 18 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 48.85%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Atlanta United had a probability of 25.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.33%) and 2-1 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.35%), while for an Atlanta United win it was 0-1 (8.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York Red Bulls would win this match.
| Result | ||
| New York Red Bulls | Draw | Atlanta United |
48.85% ( -0.76) | 26.11% ( 0.39) | 25.04% ( 0.37) |
| Both teams to score 48.57% ( -0.79) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.01% ( -1.2) | 54.99% ( 1.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.73% ( -1) | 76.26% ( 1) |
| New York Red Bulls Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.45% ( -0.83) | 22.54% ( 0.83) |
