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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Houston Dynamo win with a probability of 54.24%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 22.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Houston Dynamo win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.82%) and 2-0 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.88%), while for a San Jose Earthquakes win it was 0-1 (6.03%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Houston Dynamo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Houston Dynamo | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
54.24% ( 0.71) | 23.09% ( -0.26) | 22.67% ( -0.44) |
| Both teams to score 55.29% ( 0.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.14% ( 0.66) | 44.85% ( -0.66) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.79% ( 0.63) | 67.21% ( -0.63) |
| Houston Dynamo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.55% ( 0.49) | 16.45% ( -0.49) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 53.86% ( 0.88) | 46.14% ( -0.87) |
| San Jose Earthquakes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.18% ( -0.04) | 33.82% ( 0.04) |
