SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 40.75%. A win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 34.03% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.76%) and 0-2 (6.61%). The likeliest Montpellier HSC win was 1-0 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toulouse would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Montpellier HSC | Draw | Toulouse |
34.03% ( -0.19) | 25.22% ( 0.39) | 40.75% ( -0.21) |
| Both teams to score 56.57% ( -1.43) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.99% ( -1.84) | 47% ( 1.83) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.75% ( -1.74) | 69.25% ( 1.73) |
| Montpellier HSC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.41% ( -0.99) | 26.59% ( 0.98) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.18% ( -1.33) | 61.81% ( 1.32) |
| Toulouse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.07% ( -0.9) | 22.93% ( 0.89) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.3% ( -1.34) | 56.69% ( 1.33) |
| Score Analysis |
| Montpellier HSC | Draw | Toulouse |
| 1-0 @ 8.08% ( 0.39) 2-1 @ 7.88% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 5.35% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 3.48% ( -0.12)3-2 @ 2.56% ( -0.16)3-0 @ 2.36% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.15% ( -0.07)Other @ 3.18% Total : 34.03% | 1-1 @ 11.89% ( 0.27) 0-0 @ 6.1% ( 0.45)2-2 @ 5.8% ( -0.19)3-3 @ 1.26% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.21% | 0-1 @ 8.98% ( 0.44) 1-2 @ 8.76% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 6.61% ( 0.16)1-3 @ 4.3% ( -0.13)0-3 @ 3.25% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.85% ( -0.17)1-4 @ 1.58% ( -0.09)0-4 @ 1.2% ( -0.04)2-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.09)Other @ 2.18% Total : 40.75% |
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