SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 48.12%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 26.23% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (8.81%). The likeliest Marseille win was 0-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lille | Draw | Marseille |
48.12% ( 0.27) | 25.64% ( -0.09) | 26.23% ( -0.17) |
| Both teams to score 50.99% ( 0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.64% ( 0.26) | 52.36% ( -0.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.96% ( 0.23) | 74.04% ( -0.22) |
| Lille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.23% ( 0.23) | 21.76% ( -0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.05% ( 0.34) | 54.95% ( -0.34) |
| Marseille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.17% ( 0) | 34.83% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.44% ( 0.01) | 71.56% |
| Score Analysis |
| Lille | Draw | Marseille |
| 1-0 @ 11.55% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 9.3% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 8.81% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 4.73% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 4.48% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.49% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.8% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 1.71% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 0.95% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.3% Total : 48.12% | 1-1 @ 12.19% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 7.58% ( -0.08)2-2 @ 4.9% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.97% Total : 25.64% | 0-1 @ 8% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 6.43% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 4.22% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 2.26% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.72% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.12% Total : 26.23% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 37 | 27 | 4 | 6 | 87 | 37 | 50 | 85 |
| 2 | Lens | 37 | 24 | 9 | 4 | 65 | 28 | 37 | 81 |
| 3 | Marseille | 37 | 22 | 7 | 8 | 67 | 39 | 28 | 73 |
| 4 | Lille | 37 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 64 | 43 | 21 | 66 |
| 5 | Rennes | 37 | 20 | 5 | 12 | 67 | 38 | 29 | 65 |
| 6 | MonacoMonaco | 37 | 19 | 8 | 10 | 69 | 56 | 13 | 65 |
| 7 | Lyon | 37 | 18 | 8 | 11 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
| 8 | Clermont | 37 | 16 | 8 | 13 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 56 |
| 9 | Nice | 37 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 45 | 36 | 9 | 55 |
| 10 | Lorient | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 50 | 52 | -2 | 52 |
| 11 | Reims | 37 | 12 | 15 | 10 | 44 | 42 | 2 | 51 |
| 12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 37 | 14 | 5 | 18 | 62 | 61 | 1 | 47 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 45 |
| 14 | Brest | 37 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 43 | 52 | -9 | 44 |
| 15 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 50 | 57 | -7 | 40 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 37 | 8 | 11 | 18 | 34 | 60 | -26 | 35 |
| 17 | NantesNantes | 37 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 33 |
| R | Troyes | 37 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 44 | 80 | -36 | 23 |
| R | Ajaccio | 37 | 6 | 5 | 26 | 22 | 74 | -52 | 23 |
| R | Angers | 37 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 33 | 80 | -47 | 18 |
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