Surely something must give, as both teams seek to end their dismal opening-day records, and it is most likely that Lens will do so, due to a combination of home advantage and their greater firepower up front.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 53.21%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Brest had a probability of 22.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.91%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.67%), while for a Brest win it was 0-1 (7.1%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lens would win this match.
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