SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 79.39%. A draw had a probability of 14.2% and a win for Ajaccio had a probability of 6.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.17%) and 1-0 (11.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.67%), while for an Ajaccio win it was 0-1 (2.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lens would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lens | Draw | Ajaccio |
79.39% ( 0.01) | 14.19% ( -0.01) | 6.42% ( -0) |
| Both teams to score 39.09% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.27% ( 0.01) | 41.73% ( -0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.87% ( 0.01) | 64.13% ( -0.01) |
| Lens Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.54% ( 0.01) | 8.46% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 70.64% ( 0.01) | 29.36% ( -0.01) |
| Ajaccio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 42.7% ( -0.01) | 57.3% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 10.79% ( -0.01) | 89.21% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lens | Draw | Ajaccio |
| 2-0 @ 14.78% 3-0 @ 12.17% ( 0.01)1-0 @ 11.97% 2-1 @ 8.23% ( -0)4-0 @ 7.51% ( 0)3-1 @ 6.78% 4-1 @ 4.19% ( 0)5-0 @ 3.71% ( 0)5-1 @ 2.07% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.89% ( -0)6-0 @ 1.53% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.17% Other @ 3.39% Total : 79.38% | 1-1 @ 6.67% ( -0) 0-0 @ 4.85% ( -0)2-2 @ 2.29% ( -0)Other @ 0.38% Total : 14.19% | 0-1 @ 2.7% ( -0) 1-2 @ 1.86% ( -0)Other @ 1.86% Total : 6.42% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 37 | 27 | 4 | 6 | 87 | 37 | 50 | 85 |
| 2 | Lens | 37 | 24 | 9 | 4 | 65 | 28 | 37 | 81 |
| 3 | Marseille | 37 | 22 | 7 | 8 | 67 | 39 | 28 | 73 |
| 4 | Lille | 37 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 64 | 43 | 21 | 66 |
| 5 | Rennes | 37 | 20 | 5 | 12 | 67 | 38 | 29 | 65 |
| 6 | MonacoMonaco | 37 | 19 | 8 | 10 | 69 | 56 | 13 | 65 |
| 7 | Lyon | 37 | 18 | 8 | 11 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
| 8 | Clermont | 37 | 16 | 8 | 13 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 56 |
| 9 | Nice | 37 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 45 | 36 | 9 | 55 |
| 10 | Lorient | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 50 | 52 | -2 | 52 |
| 11 | Reims | 37 | 12 | 15 | 10 | 44 | 42 | 2 | 51 |
| 12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 37 | 14 | 5 | 18 | 62 | 61 | 1 | 47 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 45 |
| 14 | Brest | 37 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 43 | 52 | -9 | 44 |
| 15 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 50 | 57 | -7 | 40 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 37 | 8 | 11 | 18 | 34 | 60 | -26 | 35 |
| 17 | NantesNantes | 37 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 33 |
| R | Troyes | 37 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 44 | 80 | -36 | 23 |
| R | Ajaccio | 37 | 6 | 5 | 26 | 22 | 74 | -52 | 23 |
| R | Angers | 37 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 33 | 80 | -47 | 18 |
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