Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos Laguna win with a probability of 39.62%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 35.92% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos Laguna win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.89%) and 0-2 (6%). The likeliest Toluca win was 2-1 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Santos Laguna in this match.
