Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 46.21%. A win for Juarez had a probability of 28.84% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.29%) and 2-0 (7.81%). The likeliest Juarez win was 0-1 (7.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.81%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
