SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 18 | Stockport County | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 19 | Swindon Town | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 20 | Gillingham | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 22 | Crawley Town | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| 23 | Newport County | 4 | -4 | 1 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 4 | -4 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 51.45%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Rochdale had a probability of 23.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.63%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.93%), while for a Rochdale win it was 0-1 (7.51%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Swindon Town | Draw | Rochdale |
51.45% ( 3.91) | 25.12% ( -0.78) | 23.42% ( -3.13) |
| Both teams to score 49.84% ( -0.63) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.47% ( 0.64) | 52.52% ( -0.64) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.81% ( 0.54) | 74.19% ( -0.54) |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.58% ( 1.95) | 20.42% ( -1.95) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 47.14% ( 3) | 52.85% ( -3) |
| Rochdale Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.62% ( -2.39) | 37.38% ( 2.39) |
