SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 64.06%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 14.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.12%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.04%), while for a Hartlepool United win it was 0-1 (5.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Swindon Town | Draw | Hartlepool United |
64.06% ( 0.17) | 21.15% ( -0.12) | 14.79% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 47.22% ( 0.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.59% ( 0.37) | 48.41% ( -0.38) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.45% ( 0.34) | 70.55% ( -0.34) |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.58% ( 0.17) | 14.42% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 57.65% ( 0.34) | 42.35% ( -0.34) |
| Hartlepool United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.17% ( 0.14) | 44.82% ( -0.15) |
