SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 51.95%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Gillingham had a probability of 20.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.17%) and 2-1 (8.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.3%), while for a Gillingham win it was 0-1 (8.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Northampton Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Northampton Town | Draw | Gillingham |
51.95% ( 0.32) | 27.41% ( 0.01) | 20.64% ( -0.34) |
| Both teams to score 40.62% ( -0.41) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.12% ( -0.32) | 62.88% ( 0.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.62% ( -0.23) | 82.38% ( 0.23) |
| Northampton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.44% ( 0) | 24.56% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 40.95% ( 0.01) | 59.05% ( -0.01) |
| Gillingham Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.85% ( -0.55) | 46.15% ( 0.55) |
