SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 45.31%. A win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 29.35% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.18%) and 0-2 (7.8%). The likeliest Hartlepool United win was 1-0 (7.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Hartlepool United | Draw | Swindon Town |
29.35% ( -0.45) | 25.34% ( -0.02) | 45.31% ( 0.47) |
| Both teams to score 54.16% ( -0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.73% ( -0.15) | 49.27% ( 0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.67% ( -0.14) | 71.32% ( 0.14) |
| Hartlepool United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.2% ( -0.41) | 30.79% ( 0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 32.93% ( -0.48) | 67.07% ( 0.48) |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.26% ( 0.15) | 21.74% ( -0.15) |
