SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 21 | Hartlepool United | 4 | -5 | 2 |
| 22 | Crawley Town | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| 23 | Newport County | 4 | -4 | 1 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 11 | Carlisle United | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | AFC Wimbledon | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Grimsby Town | 4 | -1 | 5 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 48.01%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 24.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.6%) and 2-1 (8.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.66%), while for an AFC Wimbledon win it was 0-1 (9.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Crawley Town | Draw | AFC Wimbledon |
48.01% ( 3.35) | 27.19% ( -1.02) | 24.79% ( -2.33) |
| Both teams to score 45.39% ( 0.95) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.98% ( 2.1) | 59.02% ( -2.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.51% ( 1.6) | 79.49% ( -1.6) |
| Crawley Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.32% ( 2.63) | 24.67% ( -2.63) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 40.8% ( 3.54) | 59.2% ( -3.54) |
| AFC Wimbledon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.25% ( -0.87) | 39.75% ( 0.87) |
