SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 19 | Accrington Stanley | 7 | -2 | 7 |
| 20 | Lincoln City | 7 | -5 | 7 |
| 21 | Forest Green Rovers | 7 | -9 | 7 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Bolton Wanderers | 7 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Derby County | 7 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Barnsley | 7 | 1 | 10 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 42.86%. A win for Lincoln City had a probability of 30.22% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.72%) and 0-2 (7.91%). The likeliest Lincoln City win was 1-0 (9.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Lincoln City | Draw | Derby County |
30.22% ( 0.66) | 26.92% ( 0.22) | 42.86% ( -0.87) |
| Both teams to score 49.74% ( -0.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.79% ( -0.58) | 55.21% ( 0.58) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.56% ( -0.48) | 76.44% ( 0.48) |
| Lincoln City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.77% ( 0.19) | 33.23% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 30.16% ( 0.2) | 69.84% ( -0.2) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.5% ( -0.7) | 25.5% ( 0.7) |
