SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Accrington Stanley | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Charlton Athletic | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Bolton Wanderers | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | Cambridge United | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Derby County | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Plymouth Argyle | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 40.92%. A win for Charlton Athletic had a probability of 33.03% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.7%) and 0-2 (7.04%). The likeliest Charlton Athletic win was 1-0 (8.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Charlton Athletic | Draw | Derby County |
33.03% ( 0.08) | 26.05% ( -0.06) | 40.92% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 53.51% ( 0.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.15% ( 0.28) | 50.84% ( -0.29) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.27% ( 0.25) | 72.73% ( -0.25) |
| Charlton Athletic Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.92% ( 0.19) | 29.08% ( -0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 35% ( 0.24) | 65% ( -0.24) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.46% ( 0.11) | 24.54% ( -0.12) |
