SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 37.93%. A win for Plymouth Argyle had a probability of 37.03% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.31%) and 2-0 (5.96%). The likeliest Plymouth Argyle win was 1-2 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Exeter City | Draw | Plymouth Argyle |
37.93% ( -1.64) | 25.03% ( -0.32) | 37.03% ( 1.96) |
| Both teams to score 57.65% ( 1.32) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.2% ( 1.61) | 45.79% ( -1.62) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.89% ( 1.51) | 68.11% ( -1.52) |
| Exeter City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.17% ( -0.13) | 23.83% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.99% ( -0.19) | 58% ( 0.19) |
| Plymouth Argyle Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.69% ( 1.85) | 24.31% ( -1.86) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.31% ( 2.55) | 58.69% ( -2.56) |
| Score Analysis |
| Exeter City | Draw | Plymouth Argyle |
| 2-1 @ 8.43% ( -0.19) 1-0 @ 8.31% ( -0.62)2-0 @ 5.96% ( -0.47)3-1 @ 4.03% ( -0.11)3-2 @ 2.85% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 2.85% ( -0.24)4-1 @ 1.45% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 1.02% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.09)Other @ 2.03% Total : 37.93% | 1-1 @ 11.75% ( -0.21) 2-2 @ 5.96% ( 0.18)0-0 @ 5.79% ( -0.41)3-3 @ 1.34% ( 0.1)Other @ 0.19% Total : 25.03% | 1-2 @ 8.31% ( 0.29) 0-1 @ 8.19% ( -0.12)0-2 @ 5.79% ( 0.22)1-3 @ 3.92% ( 0.33)2-3 @ 2.81% ( 0.23)0-3 @ 2.73% ( 0.24)1-4 @ 1.39% ( 0.18)2-4 @ 0.99% ( 0.13)0-4 @ 0.97% ( 0.13)Other @ 1.93% Total : 37.03% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 46 | 31 | 8 | 7 | 82 | 47 | 35 | 101 |
| P | Ipswich TownIpswich | 46 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 101 | 35 | 66 | 98 |
| 3 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 46 | 28 | 12 | 6 | 81 | 37 | 44 | 96 |
| 4 | Barnsley | 46 | 26 | 8 | 12 | 80 | 47 | 33 | 86 |
| 5 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 46 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 62 | 36 | 26 | 81 |
| 6 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 46 | 24 | 5 | 17 | 75 | 54 | 21 | 77 |
| 7 | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 67 | 46 | 21 | 76 |
| 8 | Portsmouth | 46 | 17 | 19 | 10 | 61 | 50 | 11 | 70 |
| 9 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 59 | 51 | 8 | 69 |
| 10 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 46 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 70 | 66 | 4 | 62 |
| 11 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 46 | 14 | 20 | 12 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 62 |
| 12 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 46 | 17 | 8 | 21 | 52 | 61 | -9 | 59 |
| 13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 53 | 51 | 2 | 58 |
| 14 | Exeter CityExeter | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 64 | 68 | -4 | 56 |
| 15 | Burton Albion | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 57 | 79 | -22 | 56 |
| 16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 45 | 61 | -16 | 54 |
| 17 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 58 | 73 | -15 | 53 |
| 18 | Port Vale | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 48 | 71 | -23 | 49 |
| 19 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 11 | 14 | 21 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 47 |
| 20 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 46 | 13 | 7 | 26 | 41 | 68 | -27 | 46 |
| R | MK Dons | 46 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 44 | 66 | -22 | 45 |
| 22 | Morecambe | 46 | 10 | 14 | 22 | 47 | 78 | -31 | 44 |
| R | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 11 | 11 | 24 | 40 | 77 | -37 | 44 |
| R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 46 | 6 | 9 | 31 | 31 | 89 | -58 | 27 |
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