Exeter's results have experienced a dip during a difficult run of fixtures, and the visit of a playoff-chasing Derby on Tuesday night will be another tricky test.
Warne's men know a victory at St James Park could move them as high as fifth with just three matches left to play - we believe the Rams will end their spell of draws in this one with a vital maximum.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 45.24%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 28.46% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.02%) and 0-2 (8.29%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 1-0 (8.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Derby County in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Derby County.
0.06) 
-0.01) 
