SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 57.02%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Valencia had a probability of 19.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.45%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.06%), while for a Valencia win it was 0-1 (6.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Villarreal | Draw | Valencia |
57.02% ( -0.74) | 23.26% ( 0.12) | 19.72% ( 0.62) |
| Both teams to score 50.46% ( 0.67) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.83% ( 0.37) | 49.17% ( -0.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.76% ( 0.34) | 71.24% ( -0.33) |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.98% ( -0.13) | 17.02% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 52.85% ( -0.22) | 47.15% ( 0.22) |
| Valencia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.81% ( 0.9) | 39.19% ( -0.9) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.1% ( 0.83) | 75.9% ( -0.83) |
| Score Analysis |
| Villarreal | Draw | Valencia |
| 1-0 @ 11.81% ( -0.23) 2-0 @ 10.45% ( -0.25)2-1 @ 9.8% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 6.17% ( -0.17)3-1 @ 5.78% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 2.73% ( -0.09)3-2 @ 2.71% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 2.56% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.2% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 0.97% ( -0.04)5-1 @ 0.91% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.93% Total : 57.01% | 1-1 @ 11.06% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 6.67% ( -0.1)2-2 @ 4.59% ( 0.12)Other @ 0.94% Total : 23.26% | 0-1 @ 6.25% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 5.18% ( 0.15)0-2 @ 2.93% ( 0.1)1-3 @ 1.62% ( 0.09)2-3 @ 1.43% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.05)Other @ 1.4% Total : 19.72% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
| 9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
| 11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
| 13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
| 15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
| 16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
| R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
| R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
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