SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Sociedad win with a probability of 72.38%. A draw had a probability of 17.4% and a win for Almeria had a probability of 10.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Sociedad win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.57%) and 3-0 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.26%), while for an Almeria win it was 0-1 (3.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Sociedad would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Real Sociedad | Draw | Almeria |
72.38% ( 0.23) | 17.38% ( -0.13) | 10.23% ( -0.1) |
| Both teams to score 45.69% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.01% ( 0.27) | 42.98% ( -0.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.61% ( 0.27) | 65.38% ( -0.27) |
| Real Sociedad Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.52% ( 0.13) | 10.47% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 65.89% ( 0.29) | 34.11% ( -0.3) |
| Almeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.03% ( -0.02) | 48.96% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 16.07% ( -0.02) | 83.93% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Real Sociedad | Draw | Almeria |
| 2-0 @ 13.05% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 11.57% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 9.82% ( 0.05)2-1 @ 9.32% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 7.01% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 5.54% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 3.96% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.5% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 2.5% ( 0.04)5-1 @ 1.79% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.41% ( 0.01)6-0 @ 0.94% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.98% Total : 72.38% | 1-1 @ 8.26% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 5.13% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 3.33% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.66% Total : 17.38% | 0-1 @ 3.66% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 2.95% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 1.31% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.31% Total : 10.23% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 38 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 70 | 20 | 50 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 24 | 6 | 8 | 75 | 36 | 39 | 78 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 38 | 23 | 8 | 7 | 70 | 33 | 37 | 77 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 21 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 35 | 16 | 71 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 38 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 59 | 40 | 19 | 64 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 46 | 41 | 5 | 60 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 38 | 15 | 8 | 15 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 53 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 14 | 9 | 15 | 47 | 43 | 4 | 51 |
| 9 | Mallorca | 38 | 14 | 8 | 16 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 50 |
| 10 | GironaGirona | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 58 | 55 | 3 | 49 |
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 45 | 53 | -8 | 49 |
| 12 | Sevilla | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 47 | 54 | -7 | 49 |
| 13 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 43 | 53 | -10 | 43 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 38 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 30 | 53 | -23 | 42 |
| 15 | Valencia | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 42 |
| 16 | Getafe | 38 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 42 |
| 17 | Almeria | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 49 | 65 | -16 | 41 |
| R | Real ValladolidValladolid | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 40 |
| R | Espanyol | 38 | 8 | 13 | 17 | 52 | 69 | -17 | 37 |
| R | ElcheElche | 38 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 30 | 67 | -37 | 25 |
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