SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 38 | 9 | 63 |
| 7 | Sagan Tosu | 38 | 8 | 59 |
| 8 | Avispa Fukuoka | 38 | 5 | 54 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Yokohama F Marinos | 38 | 47 | 79 |
| 3 | Vissel Kobe | 38 | 26 | 73 |
| 4 | Kashima Antlers | 38 | 26 | 69 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sagan Tosu win with a probability of 46.31%. A win for Vissel Kobe had a probability of 26.92% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sagan Tosu win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.96%) and 2-0 (8.84%). The likeliest Vissel Kobe win was 0-1 (8.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sagan Tosu | Draw | Vissel Kobe |
46.31% ( -0.1) | 26.76% ( 0.04) | 26.92% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 48.26% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
