SM
| Current Third Round Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | South Korea | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Iraq | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Jordan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Oman | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Kuwait | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Palestine | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current Third Round Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Japan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Australia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Saudi Arabia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | China | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Bahrain | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Indonesia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saudi Arabia win with a probability of 38.11%. A win for Iraq had a probability of 35.39% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saudi Arabia win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.31%) and 0-2 (6.59%). The likeliest Iraq win was 1-0 (9.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Saudi Arabia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Iraq | Draw | Saudi Arabia |
35.39% ( -0.45) | 26.49% ( 0.13) | 38.11% ( 0.32) |
| Both teams to score 52.51% ( -0.46) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.67% ( -0.57) | 52.33% ( 0.56) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.98% ( -0.49) | 74.02% ( 0.48) |
| Iraq Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.67% ( -0.54) | 28.33% ( 0.54) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.94% ( -0.69) | 64.06% ( 0.69) |
| Saudi Arabia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.26% ( -0.08) | 26.73% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38% ( -0.11) | 62% ( 0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Iraq | Draw | Saudi Arabia |
| 1-0 @ 9.55% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 7.95% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 6.02% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 3.34% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 2.53% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 2.2% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 1.05% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.73% Total : 35.39% | 1-1 @ 12.6% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 7.57% ( 0.17)2-2 @ 5.24% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 0.97% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.49% | 0-1 @ 9.99% ( 0.2) 1-2 @ 8.31% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 6.59% ( 0.12)1-3 @ 3.66% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.9% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.31% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.21% ( -0)0-4 @ 0.96% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.2% Total : 38.11% |
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