SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 54.79%. A win for Cardiff City had a probability of 22.61% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.45%) and 2-0 (8.81%). The likeliest Cardiff City win was 1-2 (5.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Cardiff City |
54.79% ( -0.13) | 22.6% ( 0.02) | 22.61% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 56.86% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.26% ( 0.06) | 42.74% ( -0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.86% ( 0.07) | 65.14% ( -0.06) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.49% ( -0.02) | 15.51% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.58% ( -0.04) | 44.42% ( 0.04) |
| Cardiff City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.3% ( 0.14) | 32.7% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.75% ( 0.16) | 69.25% ( -0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa | Draw | Cardiff City |
| 2-1 @ 9.85% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 9.45% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 8.81% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 6.12% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 5.47% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 3.42% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.85% ( -0)4-0 @ 2.55% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.59% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.06% ( -0)5-0 @ 0.95% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.68% Total : 54.79% | 1-1 @ 10.56% 2-2 @ 5.5% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 5.07% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.27% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.18% Total : 22.59% | 1-2 @ 5.91% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 5.67% ( 0)0-2 @ 3.17% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 2.2% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.05% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.18% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.43% Total : 22.61% |
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