SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crystal Palace win with a probability of 38.43%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 35.68% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crystal Palace win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.43%) and 2-0 (6.42%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 0-1 (8.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Crystal Palace would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Crystal Palace | Draw | Aston Villa |
38.43% ( 0.33) | 25.89% ( 0.06) | 35.68% ( -0.39) |
| Both teams to score 54.55% ( -0.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.26% ( -0.28) | 49.74% ( 0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.25% ( -0.25) | 71.75% ( 0.25) |
| Crystal Palace Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.64% ( 0.05) | 25.36% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.85% ( 0.07) | 60.15% ( -0.07) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.08% ( -0.36) | 26.91% ( 0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.76% ( -0.48) | 62.24% ( 0.47) |
| Score Analysis |
| Crystal Palace | Draw | Aston Villa |
| 1-0 @ 9.36% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 8.43% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 6.42% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 3.86% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 2.94% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 2.53% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.32% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.01% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.55% Total : 38.43% | 1-1 @ 12.29% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 6.82% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 5.53% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.89% | 0-1 @ 8.96% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.07% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 5.88% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 3.53% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 2.57% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 2.42% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 1.16% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.1% Total : 35.68% |
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