SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | FC Twente | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Feyenoord | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Chaves | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Gil Vicente | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Vizela | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 58.27%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 19.57%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.93%) and 2-0 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.48%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 0-1 (5.53%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Gil Vicente |
58.27% ( 0.25) | 22.16% ( -0.01) | 19.57% ( -0.25) |
| Both teams to score 53.74% ( -0.4) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.31% ( -0.33) | 44.69% ( 0.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.94% ( -0.32) | 67.05% ( 0.32) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.96% ( -0.03) | 15.03% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 56.48% ( -0.06) | 43.52% ( 0.06) |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.25% ( -0.45) | 36.75% ( 0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.46% ( -0.45) | 73.54% ( 0.45) |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 1-0 @ 10.46% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 9.93% 2-0 @ 9.92% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 6.27% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 6.27% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 3.14% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 2.97% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.97% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.49% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.13% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.13% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.6% Total : 58.26% | 1-1 @ 10.48% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 5.52% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 4.97% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.13% Total : 22.16% | 0-1 @ 5.53% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 5.25% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 2.77% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 1.75% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.7% Total : 19.57% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Manchester CityMan City | 35 | 27 | 4 | 4 | 92 | 31 | 61 | 85 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 36 | 25 | 6 | 5 | 83 | 42 | 41 | 81 |
| 3 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 36 | 19 | 12 | 5 | 67 | 32 | 35 | 69 |
| 4 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 35 | 20 | 6 | 9 | 51 | 41 | 10 | 66 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 36 | 19 | 8 | 9 | 70 | 42 | 28 | 65 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 35 | 17 | 7 | 11 | 67 | 49 | 18 | 58 |
| 7 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 36 | 17 | 6 | 13 | 65 | 59 | 6 | 57 |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 36 | 17 | 6 | 13 | 48 | 44 | 4 | 57 |
| 9 | Brentford | 36 | 13 | 14 | 9 | 54 | 45 | 9 | 53 |
| 10 | Fulham | 36 | 15 | 6 | 15 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 51 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 35 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 43 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 36 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 37 | 46 | -9 | 43 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 36 | 11 | 7 | 18 | 30 | 52 | -22 | 40 |
| 14 | Bournemouth | 36 | 11 | 6 | 19 | 37 | 69 | -32 | 39 |
| 15 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 36 | 10 | 7 | 19 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 37 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 36 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 36 | 67 | -31 | 34 |
| 17 | Everton | 36 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 32 | 56 | -24 | 32 |
| 18 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 36 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 46 | 71 | -25 | 31 |
| 19 | Leicester CityLeicester | 36 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 49 | 67 | -18 | 30 |
| R | Southampton | 36 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 31 | 66 | -35 | 24 |
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