SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Utrecht win with a probability of 58.23%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 20%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Utrecht win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.69%) and 2-0 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.19%), while for a Willem II win it was 1-2 (5.37%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Utrecht would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Utrecht | Draw | Willem II |
58.23% ( -0.16) | 21.76% ( 0.16) | 20% ( -0) |
| Both teams to score 55.81% ( -0.55) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.7% ( -0.72) | 42.3% ( 0.72) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.29% ( -0.73) | 64.7% ( 0.73) |
| FC Utrecht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.75% ( -0.29) | 14.24% ( 0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58% ( -0.56) | 42% ( 0.56) |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.07% ( -0.42) | 34.92% ( 0.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.33% ( -0.44) | 71.66% ( 0.44) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Utrecht | Draw | Willem II |
| 2-1 @ 9.94% ( 0) 1-0 @ 9.69% ( 0.21)2-0 @ 9.45% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 6.46% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 6.14% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.4% ( -0.07)4-1 @ 3.15% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 2.99% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.66% ( -0.05)5-1 @ 1.23% ( -0.04)5-0 @ 1.17% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.99% Total : 58.23% | 1-1 @ 10.19% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 5.23% ( -0.06)0-0 @ 4.97% ( 0.16)3-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.17% Total : 21.75% | 1-2 @ 5.37% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.23% ( 0.11)0-2 @ 2.75% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 1.88% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 0.97% ( -0)Other @ 1.98% Total : 20% |
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