SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 37.79%. A win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 37.12% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.36%) and 0-2 (5.96%). The likeliest FC Utrecht win was 2-1 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| FC Utrecht | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
37.12% ( 0.43) | 25.09% ( 0.1) | 37.79% ( -0.52) |
| Both teams to score 57.44% ( -0.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.92% ( -0.44) | 46.08% ( 0.44) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.62% ( -0.42) | 68.38% ( 0.42) |
| FC Utrecht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.61% ( 0.03) | 24.39% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.19% ( 0.04) | 58.81% ( -0.04) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.97% ( -0.47) | 24.03% ( 0.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.7% ( -0.68) | 58.3% ( 0.68) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Utrecht | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2-1 @ 8.32% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 8.27% ( 0.16)2-0 @ 5.83% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 3.91% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.79% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 2.74% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 1.38% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 0.98% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.92% Total : 37.12% | 1-1 @ 11.79% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 5.93% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 5.86% ( 0.11)3-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.18% Total : 25.09% | 1-2 @ 8.41% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 8.36% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 5.96% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 4% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 2.83% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 2.82% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 1.42% ( -0.05)0-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.04)2-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.98% Total : 37.79% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 59 | 7 | 52 | 51 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 50 | 16 | 34 | 39 |
| 3 | FC Twente | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 36 | 20 | 16 | 37 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 16 | 20 | 33 |
| 5 | Ajax | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 38 | 32 | 6 | 28 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 25 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 23 |
| 8 | NECNijmegen | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 33 | 30 | 3 | 22 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 20 |
| 10 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 19 |
| 12 | Almere CityAlmere City | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 19 |
| 13 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 18 |
| 14 | Heracles | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 18 |
| 15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 17 |
| 16 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 17 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 14 |
| 17 | Vitesse | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 37 | -25 | 12 |
| 18 | FC VolendamVolendam | 17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 11 |
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