SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 51.83%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.58%) and 0-2 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.73%), while for a FC Utrecht win it was 1-0 (7.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.
| Result | ||
| FC Utrecht | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
23.5% ( 0.16) | 24.67% ( 0.02) | 51.83% ( -0.18) |
| Both teams to score 51.27% ( 0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.32% ( 0.06) | 50.67% ( -0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.42% ( 0.05) | 72.58% ( -0.05) |
| FC Utrecht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.71% ( 0.17) | 36.29% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.93% ( 0.18) | 73.07% ( -0.18) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.46% ( -0.05) | 19.53% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.57% ( -0.08) | 51.43% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Utrecht | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 1-0 @ 7.19% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 5.95% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 3.64% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 2.01% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.64% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.23% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.84% Total : 23.5% | 1-1 @ 11.73% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.09% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 4.86% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.99% Total : 24.67% | 0-1 @ 11.57% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 9.58% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 9.45% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 5.22% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 5.15% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.64% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 2.13% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 2.1% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.08% ( 0)Other @ 2.91% Total : 51.83% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 5 | 43 | 39 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 40 | 11 | 29 | 32 |
| 3 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 6 | 23 | 29 |
| 4 | FC Twente | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 14 | 11 | 27 |
| 5 | Go Ahead Eagles | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 21 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 19 |
| 8 | PEC Zwolle | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 16 |
| 10 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 16 |
| 11 | Ajax | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 15 |
| 12 | Heracles | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 15 |
| 13 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 13 |
| 14 | Almere CityAlmere City | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 30 | -18 | 13 |
| 15 | NECNijmegen | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 12 |
| 16 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 | FC VolendamVolendam | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 15 | 36 | -21 | 8 |
| 18 | Vitesse | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 32 | -22 | 8 |
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