SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 74.63%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 10.22%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.11%) and 3-0 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.95%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 1-2 (3.05%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
74.63% ( 0.46) | 15.16% ( -0.22) | 10.22% ( -0.24) |
| Both teams to score 54.23% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.95% ( 0.37) | 32.05% ( -0.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.38% ( 0.43) | 53.62% ( -0.43) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.74% ( 0.18) | 7.26% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 73.7% ( 0.46) | 26.3% ( -0.46) |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.47% ( -0.17) | 41.53% ( 0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 21.98% ( -0.15) | 78.02% ( 0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
| 2-0 @ 10.36% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.11% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 9.07% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 7.97% ( 0.02)1-0 @ 7.91% ( -0.08)4-0 @ 5.95% ( 0.1)4-1 @ 5.23% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 3.5% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 3.12% ( 0.08)5-1 @ 2.74% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 2.3% ( 0.02)6-0 @ 1.36% ( 0.05)5-2 @ 1.2% ( 0.02)6-1 @ 1.2% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.62% Total : 74.62% | 1-1 @ 6.95% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 4% ( -0.05)0-0 @ 3.01% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 15.16% | 1-2 @ 3.05% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 2.65% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 1.16% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.18% Total : 10.22% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 5 | 43 | 39 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 40 | 11 | 29 | 32 |
| 3 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 6 | 23 | 29 |
| 4 | FC Twente | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 14 | 11 | 27 |
| 5 | Go Ahead Eagles | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 21 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 19 |
| 8 | PEC Zwolle | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 16 |
| 10 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 16 |
| 11 | Ajax | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 15 |
| 12 | Heracles | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 15 |
| 13 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 13 |
| 14 | Almere CityAlmere City | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 30 | -18 | 13 |
| 15 | NECNijmegen | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 12 |
| 16 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 | FC VolendamVolendam | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 15 | 36 | -21 | 8 |
| 18 | Vitesse | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 32 | -22 | 8 |
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