SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 43.87%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 33.43% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.36%) and 2-0 (5.71%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (7.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
| Result | ||
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
43.87% ( 0.04) | 22.69% ( -0) | 33.43% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 65.59% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.84% ( 0.01) | 35.16% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.83% ( 0.01) | 57.17% ( -0.01) |
| RB Leipzig Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.38% ( 0.02) | 16.62% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 53.55% ( 0.03) | 46.45% ( -0.03) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.66% ( -0.01) | 21.34% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.7% ( -0.02) | 54.3% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2-1 @ 8.82% ( 0) 1-0 @ 6.36% ( 0)2-0 @ 5.71% ( 0)3-1 @ 5.28% ( 0)3-2 @ 4.08% ( 0)3-0 @ 3.42% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.37% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.83% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.53% ( 0)4-3 @ 0.94% Other @ 3.54% Total : 43.87% | 1-1 @ 9.83% ( -0) 2-2 @ 6.81% 0-0 @ 3.55% ( -0)3-3 @ 2.1% ( 0)Other @ 0.41% Total : 22.7% | 1-2 @ 7.59% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.48% ( -0)0-2 @ 4.23% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.91% ( -0)2-3 @ 3.51% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.18% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.51% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.36% ( -0)Other @ 3.67% Total : 33.43% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 |
| 3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 75 |
| 4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 71 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 75 | 47 | 28 | 67 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 62 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 61 |
| 8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 60 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 59 |
| 10 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 52 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 41 |
| 14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 40 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 39 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 38 |
| 17 | Everton | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 36 |
| R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 34 |
| R | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 31 |
| R | Southampton | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 25 |
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