Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Elversberg win with a probability of 39.62%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 37.32% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Elversberg win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.23%) and 2-0 (5.21%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.
0.12) 
-0.04) 
