SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 53.28%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for San Lorenzo had a probability of 20.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.25%) and 2-1 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.11%), while for a San Lorenzo win it was 0-1 (8.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fortaleza would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fortaleza | Draw | San Lorenzo |
53.28% ( -0.08) | 26.53% ( 0.03) | 20.2% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 42.19% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.47% ( -0.05) | 60.53% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.37% ( -0.04) | 80.64% ( 0.04) |
| Fortaleza Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.06% ( -0.06) | 22.94% ( 0.06) |
