SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 78.69%. A draw had a probability of 13.4% and a win for Sporting Cristal had a probability of 7.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.25%) and 2-1 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.27%), while for a Sporting Cristal win it was 1-2 (2.42%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.
| Result | ||
| River Plate | Draw | Sporting Cristal |
78.69% ( 0.02) | 13.45% ( -0.01) | 7.86% ( -0) |
| Both teams to score 50.28% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.28% ( 0.04) | 31.72% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.76% ( 0.05) | 53.23% ( -0.05) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.6% ( 0.01) | 6.4% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 76.01% ( 0.03) | 23.98% ( -0.03) |
| Sporting Cristal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.72% ( 0.02) | 46.27% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 18.06% ( 0.01) | 81.93% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| River Plate | Draw | Sporting Cristal |
| 2-0 @ 11.18% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 10.25% 2-1 @ 8.62% ( -0)1-0 @ 8.14% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 7.9% ( 0)4-0 @ 7.05% ( 0)4-1 @ 5.43% ( 0)5-0 @ 3.88% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.04% ( 0)5-1 @ 2.99% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 2.09% ( 0)6-0 @ 1.78% ( 0)6-1 @ 1.37% ( 0)5-2 @ 1.15% ( 0)Other @ 3.82% Total : 78.68% | 1-1 @ 6.27% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 3.32% ( 0)0-0 @ 2.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.9% Total : 13.45% | 1-2 @ 2.42% ( -0) 0-1 @ 2.28% ( -0)Other @ 3.16% Total : 7.86% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 |
| 3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 75 |
| 4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 71 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 75 | 47 | 28 | 67 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 62 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 61 |
| 8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 60 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 59 |
| 10 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 52 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 41 |
| 14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 40 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 39 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 38 |
| 17 | Everton | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 36 |
| R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 34 |
| R | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 31 |
| R | Southampton | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 25 |
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