Barbastro were excellent against Almeria in the last round of the competition, but this will be a step-up in class, and we are finding it so difficult to predict a shock here. Barcelona head coach Xavi will ring the changes from his usual side, but the Catalan outfit should still have far too much for their fourth-tier opponents.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 79.67%. A draw had a probability of 14.8% and a win for Barbastro had a probability of 5.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 0-2 with a probability of 17.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (14.88%) and 0-3 (13.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.52%), while for a Barbastro win it was 1-0 (2.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
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