SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 70.63%. A draw had a probability of 16.5% and a win for Almeria had a probability of 12.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.35%) and 3-1 (7.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.38%), while for an Almeria win it was 1-2 (3.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Barcelona | Draw | Almeria |
70.63% ( 0.18) | 16.54% ( 0.17) | 12.83% ( -0.35) |
| Both teams to score 58.25% ( -1.89) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.61% ( -1.82) | 31.38% ( 1.82) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.16% ( -2.17) | 52.84% ( 2.17) |
| Barcelona Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.08% ( -0.41) | 7.91% ( 0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 72.01% ( -1.05) | 27.98% ( 1.05) |
| Almeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.26% ( -1.76) | 36.74% ( 1.76) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.47% ( -1.81) | 73.52% ( 1.8) |
| Score Analysis |
| Barcelona | Draw | Almeria |
| 2-1 @ 9.37% ( 0.12) 2-0 @ 9.35% ( 0.55)3-1 @ 7.92% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 7.91% ( 0.31)1-0 @ 7.37% ( 0.58)4-1 @ 5.02% ( -0.15)4-0 @ 5.02% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 3.97% ( -0.23)5-1 @ 2.55% ( -0.13)5-0 @ 2.55% ( -0)4-2 @ 2.52% ( -0.2)5-2 @ 1.28% ( -0.13)6-1 @ 1.08% ( -0.08)6-0 @ 1.08% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.67% Total : 70.63% | 1-1 @ 7.38% ( 0.24) 2-2 @ 4.69% ( -0.17)0-0 @ 2.91% ( 0.28)3-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.14)Other @ 0.23% Total : 16.54% | 1-2 @ 3.7% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 2.91% ( 0.15)2-3 @ 1.57% ( -0.14)0-2 @ 1.46% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.23% ( -0.08)Other @ 1.97% Total : 12.83% |
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