SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brazil win with a probability of 66.8%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Paraguay had a probability of 12.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brazil win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (14.06%) and 1-2 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.73%), while for a Paraguay win it was 1-0 (5.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Brazil would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Paraguay | Draw | Brazil |
12.11% ( 0.23) | 21.08% ( 0.21) | 66.8% ( -0.43) |
| Both teams to score 40.57% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.48% ( -0.28) | 53.52% ( 0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.97% ( -0.23) | 75.03% ( 0.24) |
| Paraguay Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 47.85% ( 0.23) | 52.15% ( -0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 13.9% ( 0.15) | 86.1% ( -0.14) |
| Brazil Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.78% ( -0.23) | 15.22% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.13% ( -0.44) | 43.87% ( 0.44) |
| Score Analysis |
| Paraguay | Draw | Brazil |
| 1-0 @ 5.17% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 3.17% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 1.68% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.1% Total : 12.11% | 1-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 7.94% ( 0.09)2-2 @ 2.98% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.44% Total : 21.08% | 0-1 @ 14.94% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 14.06% ( -0.07)1-2 @ 9.16% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 8.83% ( -0.12)1-3 @ 5.75% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 4.15% ( -0.09)1-4 @ 2.71% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.87% 0-5 @ 1.56% ( -0.05)1-5 @ 1.02% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.76% Total : 66.8% |
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