Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 37.56%. A win for Wuhan had a probability of 36.3% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.29%) and 0-2 (6.34%). The likeliest Wuhan win was 1-0 (9.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Beijing Guoan would win this match.