SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shanghai Shenhua win with a probability of 67.74%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for Guangzhou City had a probability of 13.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shanghai Shenhua win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.67%) and 1-2 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.99%), while for a Guangzhou City win it was 1-0 (4.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Guangzhou City | Draw | Shanghai Shenhua |
13.3% ( 0.06) | 18.96% ( 0.14) | 67.74% ( -0.2) |
| Both teams to score 50.44% ( -0.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.95% ( -0.53) | 42.05% ( 0.53) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.55% ( -0.53) | 64.45% ( 0.53) |
| Guangzhou City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.95% ( -0.25) | 43.05% ( 0.25) |
