SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 42.12%. A win for Braga had a probability of 35.35% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.9%) and 2-0 (5.27%). The likeliest Braga win was 1-2 (7.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.58%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Napoli | Draw | Braga |
42.12% ( 0.27) | 22.53% ( 0.02) | 35.35% ( -0.28) |
| Both teams to score 66.84% ( -0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.23% ( -0.14) | 33.77% ( 0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.4% ( -0.16) | 55.6% ( 0.15) |
| Napoli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.25% ( 0.05) | 16.74% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.33% ( 0.09) | 46.67% ( -0.09) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.28% ( -0.2) | 19.72% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.27% ( -0.33) | 51.73% ( 0.32) |
| Score Analysis |
| Napoli | Draw | Braga |
| 2-1 @ 8.56% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 5.9% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 5.27% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 5.1% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 4.14% ( -0)3-0 @ 3.14% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 2.28% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.85% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.4% ( 0.02)4-3 @ 1% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.48% Total : 42.12% | 1-1 @ 9.58% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.95% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.3% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 2.24% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.46% Total : 22.53% | 1-2 @ 7.78% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 5.36% ( 0)0-2 @ 4.35% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 4.21% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 3.76% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 2.36% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.71% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 1.53% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.02)3-4 @ 0.91% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.43% Total : 35.35% |
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