SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Werder Bremen win with a probability of 41.74%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 33.91% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Werder Bremen win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.1%) and 2-0 (6.36%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 1-2 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Freiburg in this match.
| Result | ||
| Werder Bremen | Draw | Freiburg |
41.74% ( -0.16) | 24.35% ( -0.12) | 33.91% ( 0.27) |
| Both teams to score 59.58% ( 0.49) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.91% ( 0.61) | 43.08% ( -0.61) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.51% ( 0.6) | 65.48% ( -0.6) |
| Werder Bremen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.23% ( 0.18) | 20.77% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.59% ( 0.29) | 53.41% ( -0.29) |
| Freiburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.2% ( 0.44) | 24.8% ( -0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.62% ( 0.62) | 59.38% ( -0.62) |
| Score Analysis |
| Werder Bremen | Draw | Freiburg |
| 2-1 @ 8.87% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 8.1% ( -0.17)2-0 @ 6.36% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 4.65% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.33% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 3.24% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 1.83% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.31% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.27% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.78% Total : 41.74% | 1-1 @ 11.28% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 6.18% ( 0.06)0-0 @ 5.15% ( -0.14)3-3 @ 1.51% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.23% Total : 24.35% | 1-2 @ 7.87% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 7.18% ( -0.1)0-2 @ 5.01% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.66% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 2.87% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 2.33% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 1.28% ( 0.04)2-4 @ 1% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.71% Total : 33.91% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 92 | 38 | 54 | 71 |
| 2 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 83 | 44 | 39 | 71 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 64 | 41 | 23 | 66 |
| 4 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 62 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 44 | 7 | 59 |
| 6 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 49 | 8 | 50 |
| 7 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 58 | 52 | 6 | 50 |
| 8 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 57 | 48 | 9 | 49 |
| 9 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 46 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 43 |
| 11 | FC Koln | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 42 |
| 12 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 36 |
| 13 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 51 | 64 | -13 | 36 |
| 14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 35 |
| 15 | Augsburg | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 34 |
| 16 | Stuttgart | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 33 |
| R | Schalke 04Schalke | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 31 |
| R | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 42 | 69 | -27 | 29 |
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