SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hoffenheim win with a probability of 44.99%. A win for Schalke 04 had a probability of 31.56% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hoffenheim win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.56%) and 2-0 (6.49%). The likeliest Schalke 04 win was 1-2 (7.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Hoffenheim would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Hoffenheim | Draw | Schalke 04 |
44.99% ( 0.01) | 23.45% ( -0.03) | 31.56% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 61.93% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.38% ( 0.15) | 39.61% ( -0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.04% ( 0.16) | 61.96% ( -0.16) |
| Hoffenheim Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.05% ( 0.06) | 17.95% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 51.22% ( 0.11) | 48.78% ( -0.11) |
| Schalke 04 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.48% ( 0.08) | 24.52% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.01% ( 0.12) | 58.99% ( -0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Hoffenheim | Draw | Schalke 04 |
| 2-1 @ 9.13% ( -0) 1-0 @ 7.56% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 6.49% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 5.23% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.72% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.67% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.24% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.6% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.58% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.78% Total : 44.99% | 1-1 @ 10.62% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 6.41% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.4% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.72% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.29% Total : 23.44% | 1-2 @ 7.47% ( -0) 0-1 @ 6.19% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 4.35% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.5% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 3.01% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.04% 1-4 @ 1.23% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.06% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.73% Total : 31.56% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 92 | 38 | 54 | 71 |
| 2 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 83 | 44 | 39 | 71 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 64 | 41 | 23 | 66 |
| 4 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 62 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 44 | 7 | 59 |
| 6 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 49 | 8 | 50 |
| 7 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 58 | 52 | 6 | 50 |
| 8 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 57 | 48 | 9 | 49 |
| 9 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 46 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 43 |
| 11 | FC Koln | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 42 |
| 12 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 36 |
| 13 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 51 | 64 | -13 | 36 |
| 14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 35 |
| 15 | Augsburg | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 34 |
| 16 | Stuttgart | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 33 |
| R | Schalke 04Schalke | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 31 |
| R | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 42 | 69 | -27 | 29 |
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